Saturday, November 29, 2008

Updated thoughts

First, an update on the Big Ten:

THANK YOU, OREGON!!!!!!!

With the Ducks beating Oregon State, 65-38, expect Ohio State to now join Penn State in the BCS, with the Nittany Lions now playing USC in the Rose Bowl (assuming USC beats a horrible UCLA team next Saturday) and the Buckeyes either playing in the Fiesta or Sugar Bowls, depending upon whether or not the Fiesta wants to have Utah or Ohio State play a Big XII South team that doesn't play in the conference's title game next week.

(I know there is speculation right now about a 12-0 Boise State team getting a BCS bid instead of Ohio State. Uh, yeah, that WILL NOT happen. Look at the Broncos' schedule, then try to convince me. This garbage about Ohio State's reputation is just that because last year, and the year before, have absolutely NO BEARING on this year's team or its results. The Buckeyes' two losses are to teams playing in the BCS (probably against each other in the Rose Bowl). Unless Boise State could beat either Penn State or USC, this is a no-brainer to go with Ohio State, especially when you consider Ohio State has an enormous fan base that will travel ANYWHERE.)

With that, Michigan State now moves up to the Capital One Bowl to play Georgia in a battle featuring the two running backs who better be beaten out by Shonn Greene for the Doak Walker Award — Knowshon Moreno and Javon Ringer.

Then in the Outback, yes, Iowa will be picked before Northwestern. Sorry 'Cat fans, but a snowball has a better chance of remaining solid in hell than Northwestern does of being selected ahead of the Hawkeyes in the Big Ten's bowl pecking order (in fact, don't be surprised if the Alamo Bowl decides to exercise the clause in the Big Ten's contract that states that if the Big Ten has two BCS teams, the two-win rule doesn't need to apply to the decision-making done by the Outback or Alamo Bowls, meaning if the Alamo decided it wanted to have a 7-5 Wisconsin team instead of a 9-3 Northwestern team, it is allowed to pick the Badgers presuming that Ohio State is moved up to the BCS). If this happens, Northwestern would drop to the Champs Sports Bowl, which is where it would have gone anyway if Oregon State has won the Pac-10's BCS bid.

Then the fortunate ones (or unfortunate depending on how you look at it) are the Minnesota Golden Gophers, who now get to spend New Year's in Tempe, Ariz., at the Insight Bowl instead of Christmas in Detroit at the Motor City Bowl.

Assuming that Iowa does indeed go to Tampa (which is now what I'm expecting and will be shocked if it doesn't happen), the Hawkeyes are likely to play South Carolina. Even though the Gamecocks lost to Clemson and finished 7-5, the Outback Bowl usually takes an SEC East squad while the Cotton Bowl takes an SEC West team. Now assuming Georgia goes to the Capital One and Ole Miss, who is 8-4, goes to the Cotton Bowl, the Outback will choose between 7-5 South Carolina, 7-5 LSU, 7-5 Vanderbilt, and 6-6 Kentucky. Now South Carolina did lose to both LSU and Vandy this year. However, Vanderbilt hasn't been to a bowl since 1982 and I highly doubt they'd bring a ton of people to Tampa, and not only is LSU in the SEC West, but given how the Outback chose Iowa over Michigan in 2005 mainly because of a fear that Michigan wouldn't want to travel after a "disappointing" year following two straight Rose Bowl appearances, the same concern has to probably be in place for a team that won the national title last year, and had they not come from behind to beat Troy two weeks ago, would be sitting at 6-6 right now. Unless told otherwise, expect Kirk Ferentz to be matched up with the Ol' Ball Coach on New Year's Day at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.

As for the games that did go on, here are my thoughts:

1. Texas SHOULD play in the Big XII title game...

But Oklahoma WILL. Based of what I've seen, I'd advocate for Texas because the Longhorns beat the Sooners head-to-head and are essentially one play away from being undefeated (not to mention Colt McCoy, in my opinion, has earned himself a Heisman Trophy). However, you have to put into account that the coaches (who make up 2/3 of the BCS standings) may not have even watched last night's Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game, but are going to look at that 61-41 score and say to themselves "Oklahoma did enough winning by 20 on the road" even though that game was a shootout that went down to the wire. If the AP had an impact, you'd probably see more people like myself siding with Texas here. Keep in mind that we're talking about head coaches who were hopefully watching both teams this week if they weren't coaching. Oh, and in regards to Texas Tech, the Red Raiders, I'm sorry, but they had no business winning that game against Baylor (and I'll add that Robert Griffin is one HELL of a quarterback!).

Keep one thing in mind though, regardless of whether it's Oklahoma or Texas playing Missouri on Saturday night at Arrowhead Stadium: Yes, Missouri just lost to Kansas (in what I would argue was one of the best college football games I've watched in a long, long time), but the familiarity with playing inside that stadium, I think, could benefit the Tigers in the Big XII Championship, especially since it will be the second week in a row they've played there. Now it won't be the deciding factor, but if Mizzou were to pull an upset, just remember this, and you won't be as surprised.

I'll also say this as a segway: If Missouri does somehow beat either Oklahoma or Texas in the Big XII Championship, DO NOT BE SURPRISED NOW if USC, who unless it loses to UCLA is going to the Pac-10 outright now, ends up in the BCS title game. If the Big XII South team wins next week, then forget this. But if Mizzou wins, I think it's fair as long as USC beats UCLA and wins its conference. I'd have a bigger problem if we faced this while having Oregon State winning the Pac-10. The BCS' biggest f-ups came in 2001 and 2003 when there were teams playing in the national championship that didn't even win their own conferences (and notice how both those teams LOST those championship games). My personal belief is that if you can't win your own conference (and that includes tiebreakers), then you have no business playing for a national championship.

Now USC absolutely throttled Notre Dame. Charlie Weis is as good as gone now. You cannot convince me that Notre Dame is going to keep him around after what has taken place the last few weeks. Even if the Fighting Irish go to a bowl (watch, they will be the first 6-6 team chosen for an at-large, guaranteed), they'll probably lose that game like they do every other bowl game. I will also say this, going back to the Trojans: If there is one Big Ten team that could beat USC, it's Penn State. Remember that the Nittany Lions have WON bowl games the last three years. Joe Paterno knows how to utilize weeks off (unlike Jim Tressel), and assuming this Rose Bowl happens, Penn State might not beat USC, but will without question give them a much better game than Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, or Ohio State has over the last six-seven years. Trust me on that.

The ACC title game makes me want to puke. After watching Georgia Tech run all over Georgia, I was really hoping Virginia Tech would stumble so that way we'd have an exciting ACC Championship. Sorry, but as good as the Hokies' defense and special teams have been, their offense is pure garbage, regardless of who the quarterback is. They had three drives against the Cavaliers where they went 14 plays, 14 plays, and 13 plays, and came away with exactly 0 points. You do that against a decent team, like say, the Boston College squad they'll play in Tampa next week (who they've already lost to once this season, I might add), and you have no chance. I like BC winning that game, getting payback for losing to Virginia Tech in last year's game, and see the Eagles playing Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl. By the way, a little off topic, but the ACC has 10 bowl-eligible teams. Talk about mediocrity.

Going back to the SEC, I want to commend Casey Dick, a senior quarterback for Arkansas. His younger brother started on Friday against LSU, struggled, and when the Razorbacks were down 30-14, Casey Dick came in and led Arkansas to a come-from-behind win. Much like Todd Reesing did today for Kansas, Dick threw the game-winning touchdown pass on a fourth down play. Talk about a way to end your college career since the Hogs won't be bowling this season. Oh, and Les Miles, I know Colt David's a good kicker, but a 63-yard field goal, against the wind? Are you serious?

Staying in the SEC real quick, I cannot wait to watch Alabama and Florida play next week. One thing to keep an eye on for, again, is familiarity. Just like Missouri playing in the Big XII title game, Alabama has already played a game in the Georgia Dome this year (remember that beatdown in Atlanta the Crimson Tide laid on Clemson, when everyone like myself thought Clemson was a Top-10 team that would dominate the ACC?). Like the BIG XII, I'm not saying Alabama will beat Florida because of this, but if the Tide do win, don't think this wouldn't be a factor, especially since Florida hasn't played a game inside a dome yet this season.

Finally, I want to end on a sad note. There was news today that Mississippi State head coach Sylvester Croom has decided to resign. This is significant because now there are only three African-American head coaches, which is a shame. Now I know the Bulldogs put up a goose egg in their Egg Bowl game against Ole Miss on Friday, but still. Croom led them to an eight-win season last year (and won the Liberty Bowl over a UCF team that won C-USA, I might add), and he did manage to beat Alabama two years in a row during his tenure. Turner Gill at Buffalo is now the longest-tenured African-American coach at his current job, and he has been there three years. That's just amazing. You certainly hope things head in the right direction with this, and I wish Croom well as he tries to find his niche in coaching somewhere else.

I'll be back with more later, as some bowl bids are going to be handed down here in the coming days. Don't expect anything official with the Big Ten until after next Saturday's USC-UCLA game.

- Brendan

2 comments:

UISJMC Chiakulas said...

Great post man. You were right on with Oklahoma jumping Texas to go to the Big 12 Championship game. That is terribly wrong however. How can Mack Brown and Co. not be furious that the 2 teams playing in the Big 12 Championship are teams they beat?

Part of that is on the Big 12 though for even using the BCS as a tiebraker.

I hope and think Iowa will go to the Outback bowl. However that is totally wrong if Iowa goes to the Outback over Northwestern. The Wildcats had a better record than Iowa and beat the Hawkeyes at Kinnick. I don't believe all the bullshit about Iowa fans traveling better this time around because the Wildcats haven't been to a New Year's day Bowl in forever, and I can guarantee you the purple will be out in full force at Raymond James Stadium.

uisjmc morgan said...

Nice prediction on the Hawks playing South Carolina